Week 4 Preview: Dook

And here it is.

Entering the season, my pick for “most important game on the schedule” was Duke. It came after three winnable games, and gave you an opportunity - depending on what Virginia Tech looked like - to go 6-0 overall, and 3-0 in the ACC before a trip to Notre Dame. Well, the Hokies look like 💩, and the magnitude of this game can't be understated.

As an athlete, confidence matters. Getting your second straight road win, and your third over a North Carolina team, adds up. It’s very different entering the second, grueling half of this schedule feeling confident at 6-1 than a 4-3 or even 5-2 mark.

Then you consider the opponent. Most people like to clown on Duke football (it’s me, I’m most people.) They’re actually serious about trying in football. Tulane transfer Darian Mensah was arguably the top quarterback available in the portal, and he ended up in Durham, alongside a promise to be paid $8M over the next two years, according to CBS Sports.

Yes. You read that figure correctly.

This isn’t the “haha” Duke of old. They’ve beaten State the last two times they played.

Don’t be fooled by their 1-2 record. Illinois is a college football playoff team, and that game was closer than the score indicated. A road loss at Tulane is understandable, given the Mensah connection and their talent level as a G5 team. Heck, they might be a playoff team when all is said and done, too.

I'm antsy about this one, but you know what? That's a good thing. It means this team has a lot to play for, and after year's of quarterback instability and untimely injuries, I'll happily welcome back the butterflies.

---

Duke’s Offense

Per usual, the football preview conversation starts with the quarterback position, but it’s not out of obligation to how valuable the position is. This dude is a stud.

Darian Mensah enters the season with an 89.6 PFF grade, and his QBR is a respectable 68.4 - that’s been knocked by some turnovers (more on that later.) A casual 1,036 yards and an 8:2 TD to INT ratio is a great place to be three games into the season.

On tape, there isn’t a throw he can’t make. He’s got touch and velocity. He can hit RPOs and full field reads, intermediate throws over the middle, and shots on the run like this one:

The knock on Mensah so far this year: he's accounted for 2 picks and 3 fumbles so far. To be fair, the picks were both in negative game scripts with him trying to bring his team back, and two of the fumbles I saw from him were from defenders pursuing him from behind. Fumble luck is real, and it is random. There's no way to sugar coat it: this passing attack is going to be a problem, especially when you consider who he's throwing it to.

Cooper Barkate is a Harvard graduate transfer who totaled just shy of 1,100 yards last year as an FCS All American. While Barkate has led the way with 272 yards so far this year, Duke has four other receivers with over 100 yards, and while drops have been an issue at times, there's no shortage of capable threats.

I’m interested to see how State approaches this matchup. The Duke passing attack on State's coverage is "best" on "worst." You can't afford to do what you've done in the first half the last two weeks.

Alec pointed out in our Trinity Road Times discord that State sometimes moved away from a traditional two high safety look to one high in the second half. In the two high look, State’s safeties were biting on play action and getting crushed on long pass plays.

By moving one safety in the box as a run defender when appropriate, Defensive Coordinator D.J. Eliot took away the double responsibility of that safety and created less space for thinking and error.

Does Eliot keep on keeping on with match coverage principles, or does he move to simpler looks to prevent breakdowns? State’s got two redshirt freshman playing safety for them right now. To me, the less thinking and communicating required, the better.

If you were hoping a weak offensive line would be a chink in this unit’s armor, I’ve got bad news. Duke’s right tackle is a top draft prospect next year, and they return three other starters from last year’s team.

Even with this continuity, Duke’s run game hasn’t been super effective so far. Their -.02 EPA/rushing play is 85th nationally, and they’re almost dead last in rushing plays per game - that could be game script related against Illinois and Tulane, but with Mensah it makes sense that they’d prefer to have him cook.

One name to watch here is true freshman running back Nate Sheppard. He’s a rotational back for Duke right now, but to my eyes, he’s clearly their best option. State’s run defense is exceptional on a down to down basis - they are 17th nationally in rushing success rate on defense - but they are prone to giving up the explosive, which Sheppard can and will hit if given the opportunity:

Combatting this offense is going to be tough. If State can keep this game even through the end of the first half while Sebastian Harsh is serving the dumbest targeting suspension of the year, I like State’s chances to close this out in the second half.

On another scoring note: Duke’s kicking operation has been super shaky. Todd Pelino is 5 of 8 on the year, making just 4 of 7 from 40 or longer. Last week a snap hit the holder right in the hands and he dropped it.

Duke is going to score points in this one. State "winning" this side of the ball is forcing Duke to play red zone roulette: force them to sustain drives down the field, make field goals, and work for everything they get.

---

Duke’s Defense

Last year, this side of the ball was scary. It carried them in Raleigh. It carried them in most of their wins.

But we’ve already seen significant backsliding from this group. Last year, they finished the year as the 31st rated defense per ESPN’s SP+ metric. In '25, they’re all the way back at 62nd. What gives?

Losing six starters from last year’s matchup in Raleigh certainly makes an impact. 3 out of the 4 starters from that secondary are gone, and there’s been a struggle to replicate their production.

Some context for Duke’s year so far:

• 121st in EPA/Pass allowed (State is 34th nationally on offense)

• 86th in EPA/Rush allowed

• 101st in 3rd/4th down success rate

• 20th in average 3rd down distance

Duke is quite effective at stacking tackles for loss, but pretty terrible at getting off the field, hence the healthy 3rd down distance ranking at odds with the other numbers.

DE Vincent Anthony is one of those TFL machines. Number seven is a monster with 5 sacks and a forced fumble to his name already. He’ll be matched up against Jacarrius Peak primarily: trench football cinema.

Duke’s best defensive player off last year’s team, corner Chandler Rivers, is also back. He’s a menace: he’s only been targeted five times so far this year, and has almost as many pass break ups (2) as he has receptions allowed (3.) Last year in Raleigh, Duke’s corners were incredibly active and effective in coming down to play the run. State’s receivers couldn’t block them effectively, and the quarterback struggled to get them the ball in advantageous positions. This year, they've only got three total PBUs to their name.

To me, last year's match up was C.J.’s worst game in red and white. He finished with a terrible 45 PFF grade, went 16/39 for 184 yards, 1 touchdown, two turnovers, and a safety. His 41% completion rate was the lowest completion rate of the year by 10 percentage points. Far different than what got put on tape last week.

Tomorrow represents a significant mile marker in C.J.’s growth. Can he continue to show the poise and processing growth we’ve seen so far this year on the road against the team who did their worst against him last year? I trust Roper to continue to put C.J. in good spots - it seems like he's got a great grasp on what C.J. likes and does well.

Another interesting element to watch here: Duke has been eaten alive by running quarterbacks this year. Aggression is built into what Manny Diaz wants to do defensively. Much of Duke's front loves to get up field, and Tulane used this to its advantage, reading unblocked edge players and making them pay on the ground.

Adjusting for sacks, Duke has given up 5.87 yards per carry and 5 touchdowns on 31 attempts from running quarterbacks at Elon and Tulane. Does Roper add more QB run to the play sheet from both C.J. and Will Wilson? I hope not. I understand wanting to take advantage of a defense's weakness, but State's offense is talented to the point that I don't think it's necessary to conform what you're doing to the opponent.

It's reasonable to argue this on a weekly basis, but the key for this side of the ball to me is staying on schedule. If State can regularly put C.J. in 2nd and 6 spots, there shouldn't be issues moving the ball up and down the field with this crew.

---

Duke is well coached. They've paid for top talent. To me, this is the toughest team State has played on the season. The 1-2 vs. 3-0 matchup is misleading.

Also: what a freaking quarterback matchup we have in this one. It's unfortunate that my heart rate will be racing the entire three plus hours, because I'd love to really soak this one in:

One other point to note before final thoughts is how the Devils have performed in the "self destruction" stat category:

• Duke is 119th in penalty yards per game, N.C. State is 86th

• Duke is last in the ACC in turnover margin at -6

• They've missed 3/8 field goals, muffed multiple punts, and had multiple special teams penalties to put them in tough spots

State hasn't played a clean game either. That complete game is out there, but can it happen on the back of your second straight road game, against an in-state opponent who probably has their back against the wall? If so, give me the Pack.

When we did our preseason picks, I picked this one as an L for a reason. Well, for many reasons. While Duke has regressed a bit from expectations, they're still a damn good football team.

I'm hoping that State's Thursday game - and Duke having to fly home late Saturday after a loss in Louisiana - provides some sort of advantage here.

I just can't pick State to win this game yet. If we'd seen a full game's worth of defensive competence, I'd probably do it. Right now, I trust the Devils' defense just a little bit more.

Give me State losing a tight one in Durham, 30-27.